Will it be McCain or Obama?

Understanding the US Election

Will it be Obama or McCain? Nothing is certain for now even as the poll surveys show John McCain is trailing behind Barack Obama. The conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama has a solid lead against John McCain. Today he's up by more than 7 points in the Real Clear Politics poll averages.

But just as some surveys were starting to write their landslide stories today, the next few days would show McCain behind by just one point. That might as well be a tie if you factor in the margin of error or then McCain could actually be a little bit ahead.

The weird thing is, these polls came out at the same time with other major polls showing Obama with a double-digit lead.

So, how do the candidates actually fare?

The short answer: The devil is in the details. This could be the most exciting presidential race in the recent history of the US. For the first time, the world is seeing a real Afro-American (or black American) up to become the first black American President. That nomer giving Bill Clinton the title of "first black American President" was just a silly metaphor. With what the polls are telling us, Obama is apparently a sure winner. But what the surveys don't tell us is how Americans could probably set aside racism and prove to the world that America is the bastion of world democracy and equality when it declared "all men are created equal". White Americans are a clear majority over the blacks. If Obama wins, it is because more Whites supported him.

Polling, of course, is not an exact science. Not even close. It's really an informed estimation game that leans on some speculation about who is showing up on Election Day. Pollsters can't ensure that they talk to a perfectly proportional representation of the people who will vote. So they weigh the responses they get to match the demographics of who they think will actually show up and pull the lever.

Since there is a week until we know who's showing up to vote, what are we poll-obsessed folks to do in the meantime? Well, the answer, as any voter in good faith would say, is to be patient and wait for Election Day.

With the U.S. Presidential election fateful day fast approaching, November 4 this year to be exact, the candidates are certainly jittery and anxious until the race will be over.

And not until all the votes are counted, tabulated and tallied, shall the winner be proclaimed. But, unlike in the Philippines, what we thought was a simple process of vote counting and tallying is not as simple at all. The U.S. presidential election is not won by the total number of votes of the population but by the total number of states that voted for a particular candidate.

Let’s make it simpler. Let’s say in California, once the total number of votes for that state has been tallied, the candidate with the most number of votes will be declared as the candidate which is voted upon or supported by California. Same procedure applies to the other states – New York, Mississippi, etc. until all the states have their own voted candidate, which are all then tallied to get the candidate with the most number of state votes.

However, not all of these different states have the same number of voting population, so it would be unfair for a state with more than five million population to have the same weight with that of a state with only more than a million population.

A good example would be California with more than 36 million people, as compared to Kansas with only over 3 million population. Ergo, California should have a bigger impact in the outcome of the votes because it has a bigger population. The question then would be how we put weights on the states so their influence on the election would be in relation to their population.



This is determined then by getting the number of districts in every state, the bigger the population, the more districts a state has. And the more districts the state has, the bigger is its influence on the election.

A state’s influence on the election is called the ‘electors’ which is the number of district in a state plus the number of senator from that state, which is always 2. Examples: North Carolina has 15 electors (13 districts + 2 senators) and California has 55 (53 + 2).

So when a candidate wins in a state, he wins the corresponding number of electors. This is how the candidate’s votes add up. By winning the election in a big population state, a candidate gets a bigger number of electors, which quantifies as his votes.

Adding up all the total number of electors from the different states, there are a total of 538 electors. Therefore to win a national election, the Presidential candidate must garner the majority of these electors or at least a total of 270. So by winning in more states (especially in big-population ones), a candidate who gets 270 electors or more wins the election.

Why the Philippines is not so badly hit by the global economic recession

IT IS disheartening to hear and read about families losing homes in the U.S., companies being denied access to credit, and retirement funds losing in value.

But here in the Philippines, it is not so bad. In the shopping malls, people milled about, going in and out of stores and lugging shopping bags with them. Agents for credit cards were still handing out application forms. Several other malls in the Metropolitan areas were also on sale this past weekend and people trooped to shop at a discount there and at village bazaars.

As JP Morgan said, the Philippines may weather the financial crisis even if it has significant exposure to an emerging global recession. This is because of internal buffers built in the system. Indeed as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has assured the public, the banking system is adequately capitalized. The only enemy is when people get carried away by speculations and start to panic. There is absolutely no reason to do so.

Butch Mossesgeld, a certified securities representative for PCCI Securities Brokers Corp., believes God has a hand in it. “You know, I observed that God spared our country from this crisis because during the Asian Crisis that started in 1997 the financial and property sector were restructuring their portfolio and capital structure to stay afloat. Fortunately it was only two years ago that they were starting to recover so they didn’t have the opportunity to invest aggressively. That’s the reason I believe we were spared,” he says.

The Presdient also announced that the government is putting up a P100 Billion contingency fund especially for the infrastructure sector to serve as buffer in case people start losing jobs due to the global financial crisis triggered by the US recession. When the construction business keeps going there are easy and accessible jobs for all types of workers.

As we see it business confidence remains high and there are concrete reasons for being so. Our economic fundamentals are strong. We have survived the Asian financial speculative attacks in 1997, we will get through with this one pretty well.

Will the Philippines Stand to Benefit from the Global Financial Crisis?

Trying to be optimistic, local business leaders say that the slowdown in the US economy would benefit the Philippines as it creates unique opportunity, our country being an attractive investment destination. This was according to Sergio Ortiz-Luis, chairman of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Ortiz-Luis also added that since labor and operating costs in the United States soars, most multinational companies are now looking for alternative business locations. He said, these multinational companies are now pulling out their investments on developed countries and are looking at setting up businesses in other countries in order to reduce costs. It could be possible but my guess is most of them will stay fighting it out to survive. Some of them will consider the significant cost of relocation, but for those who would find relocation as highly feasible or good option, they will do so.

Because of this, Ortiz-Luis advised people not to panic over the global economic turmoil. He said, developing countries like the Philippines are somewhat insulated and that developed nations are the one most likely to feel the impact.

Further, Ortiz-Luis stresses the importance that people with influence, like some politicians, to avoid making pronouncements regarding the economy which may cause undue panic. “This is a perception game. I call on politicians, if they have nothing good to say then they should keep it to themselves,” he said. Well, I really hope so that as the mudslinging game escalates between and among politicians our economy should be spared fromthe so-called 'dirty politics'.

Perception will dictate how the country will be affected by the economic crisis happening in the United States and other countries in Europe, according to Ortiz-Luis. He said the government and the private sector are already doing their part to manage the situation.

And with this beliefs, PCCI president Edgardo Lacson agreed with Ortiz-Luis, adding that it is important for people not to panic because it can lead to total collapse.

“If we panic and we do things that are hurtful to our economy then it is a self-fulfilling prophecy” Lacson said. Actions like withdrawing money from the bank even without any cause for alarm. And this mass withdrawals can cause collapse of even strong banks, as this could lead to bank run.

The bottom-line is, we should be aware but at the same time keep our optimism, if Ortiz-Luis’ analysis is correct, the Philippines stands to benefit from this crisis after all.

Henry Sy is RP's Richest Man in 2008

Bill Gates is to the world, while Henry Sy is to the Philippines. He is the Richest Man in the Philippines for 2008. Yes, topping the lists in Forbes Magazine’s list of wealthiest Filipino this year is Henry Sy of the SM mall chains. And despite the global financial crisis, Henry Sy and his family were able to increase their wealth by $1.4 billion. This officially makes him this year’s richest Filipino. According to Forbes, the 83-year old Sy and his family are now worth $3.1 billion.

Spearheaded by their holding company SM Investments Corporation, Sy managed to rise from No. 2 position last year to No. 1 this year. Their own unibank, Banco de Oro is now the country’s second largest bank, and this of course is aside from their interest in a dozen more companies in the Philippines.

Henry Sy’s wealth, however, were not actually handed to him on a silver platter. In fact, his journey towards success is an inspiring one, and definitely one that every Filipino entrepreneur must try to emulate.

From a store that sells shoes back in 1958 which was known as Shoemart, Sy was able to develop this into a multibillion-dollar empire. And now, half a century later, that humble shoe store is recognized as the name attached to the most popular malls throughout the country. And this entrepreneurial success did not stop at the Philippine’s soil, for Sy also has malls in some parts of China, making him a global Filipino entrepreneur.

Making this success even sweeter is that fact that Sy topped tobacco tycoon Lucio Tan who came in second with a net worth of $1.5 billion, and Jaime Zobel de Ayala whose net worth is pegged at $1.2 billion. Last year, Ayala was at the top of the list as the richest Filipino.

This report, which includes popular names such as property kingpin Andrew Tan, senate president Manny Villar, John Gokongwei, and Eduardo Cojuangco Jr., are all featured in the October 29 issue of Forbes Asia magazine.

Henry Sy must be doing something right, that is why in spite of the global economic recession, and his peers suffering downfalls, his success continues. Or, he just happened to be in the right business and doing it right. In any way, Henry Sy should be emulated by every Filipino entrepreneur.

Christmas Gifts Ideas

We know that the longest Christmas celebration has started at the instant the 'ber' months set in, although it officially starts on December 16 and ends on January 6 of next year. Most Filipinos already have the Christmas spirit as early as September. Yes, as soon as the first ‘ber’ month steps in people starts to have that Christmas feeling and some are already playing those Christmas carols.

Businesses are no exception to this early holiday preparations. It is a common practice for all businesses to give business holiday gifts on this festive season, that is why this early they are already starting to look for the perfect business gifts that will make the best representation for their businesses.

Corporate SNOBS.com offers unique items that would make a professional marketing promotions and collaterals. Their items are undoubtedly an excellent choice if you are looking for those personalized corporate give-aways this Christmas season.

Avoid the holiday rush, it’s never too early to scout around for the most ideal business gift ideas, and Corporate SNOBS.com can definitely help you. From bags, watches, desks and office accessories and even executive gifts for your sophisticated valued clients. They even have games and gizmos, as well as gifts for pets. Perfect for your clients who are into gadgets and stuffs, and what about that lady who loves her cat so much? Who would have thought that you will have a gift for her cat? Think about that. Sometimes, that's one way of winning her heart, mind you.

So if you are looking for the professional business gifts to best represent you, do remember Corporate SNOBS.com. Surely, you will never go wrong with them. And these should not be for the holiday seasons alone. You can contact them for product or company launching, a big marketing promotion that is being planned, or just to impress clients who are celebrating their birthdays or company anniversaries.

What about those who would want to impress upon their loved ones, close friends and siblings? Well, for those who can afford it, the latest craze in the techno world is still the best gift one can give so far. And as you know, the big names in the race for the best equipped mobile phones have come forth to suit your needs and lifestyles.

Apple's iPhone


Google's gPhone


Nokia's 5800


Consider Apples' iPhone and Google's gPhone. They were the first to come out with those impressive touchscreen phones with large display screens. But wait.. will Nokia stay idle and watch on the sideline? Definitely no. Nokia has come out with its music swashbuckling model, the Nokia 5800. All three has more or less the same features, but if you think weight matters, then Nokia 5800 at 3.6 ounces is the lightest; Apples' iPhone weighs 4.6 ounces and Google's gPhone is 5.2 ounces.

So what are you waiting for. In this rat race age, early gift shopping is always an advantage. You can do it either online or on the sideline. Whichever is more convenient for you, the thing is the earlier you do it, the better for you. Let's go gift-shopping now.