2009 is not what tellers of fortune say..

If we are to believe the foretune-tellers, 2009 is somewhat gloomy in terms of the economy especially on the first quarter, so they say. But I say 2009 is not what these tellers of foretune (or rather, prophet of doom?)say or guess about. For one, the first quarter of the year is merely a drag-on effect of the last quarter of 2008. And what did we have in that part of the year? The prices of crude oil slowly but gradually went down and inflation stood still. That was really good enough.

Now assuming and upturn in the prices of crude oil, and say even inflation, is indeed the trend in the first quarter of 2009 - these would not be too drastic as to create a chaotic situation in the early part of 2009. It will behave the same way. As it went down slowly and gradually it will go up the same way. At the same time we don't discount the efforts of our economic managers in the government to try to cushion the effect of such an increase in prices if it happens. Overall, there is really nothing to worry within the first quarter of the year.

An event to watch would be how the Obama administration can effectively handle the US economic recession. Whatever happens in that corner of the world is important for us as we are not exempted from its effect on the global economy. But having prepared for that situation quite extensively before he even assumes the Presidency, Pres. Obama is likely to succeed in handling the US financial crisis. What is not certain is how fast the US economy would be able to recover from such situation.

Nevertheless, with right attitude, optimism and the right economic prescriptions, the Obama administration is expected to bail out the US economy from further recession. In the Philippines, let's hope that for one last time the Arroyo administration (with all her economic background, minus her attitude) shall go for a sound legacy to leave before she steps down in 2010.